AlienWorld sent two representatives to attend the UTS talk, “Peak Oil by 2012? Will Sydney’s Public Transport System Cope?” in Sydney last Thursday. Guest speakers for the evening were Prof. Kjell Aleklett from ASPO, Councillor John McInerny from the City of Sydney and Gary Glazebrook from UTS.
Upon arriving at the University of Technology in Sydney for the peak oil lecture, the first thing we noticed was the poor attendance. Maybe fifty people sat in the lecture hall to listen to one of the top peak oil authorities in the world share his knowledge on one of the biggest challenges facing humanity in the coming decades.
Most of the attendees were students. Where was the press? Where were all the peak-oilers, bloggers and debunkers? I looked over at Ferdi Suarez, our AlienWorld photographer and I could see he was thinking the same thing. Where was everyone?
This was not some talk by a boof-head like me, it was a free lecture with a high ranking ASPO official, acknowledge the world over. And fifty people showed up? No wonder Australia is on a path to disaster in the coming decades. Nobody knows about peak oil. Not ordinary Australians anyway.
In Australia, we are one of the most car dependant nations in the world. The very essence of Australia is freedom to move through huge distances. We pride ourselves on our car culture. That makes us hugely dependant on foreign crude imports.
The nature of our country becomes our greatest hurdle in the coming crisis as we are not some small group of villages, linked together by walking tracks. Australia is a huge country and we travel huge distances on a daily basis that most Europeans simply would not understand. This makes us vulnerable in a liquid fuel crisis.
Add to this the fact that most Aussies jump in the car to drive around the block for milk and bread and you have some serious cultural and identity issues that will launch a barrage of uppercuts with fists bigger than The Thing from Fantastic Four when the time comes that we are forced to walk much further than around the block to pick up more than just milk and bread.
God help us, because this crisis is going to actually happen soon and we are not ready at all. I know some of you must be tired of hearing it. I sympathise with you and agree but it does not at all detract from the truth or reality contained in the blue pill of peak oil, transition and resilience.
Anyway, back at UTS, Professor Aleklett took the stage first and calmly reminded the audience that peak oil is not a theory. “Theories can be wrong,” he told us. Peak oil is a fact – an imminent reality.
He then went on to share some staggering statistics with us, laced with his unique blend of humour and entertaining speaking style. Here are some points from his lecture:
-The peak of July 2008 was caused by China’s buying spree of crude products for the Beijing Olympics
-The global economic downturn has eroded around 3 million bpd from world consumption. Before the downturn, we were consuming approx 87 million bpd. We are now sitting on around 84 million bpd
-When the downturn is over and demand rises again, the ceiling is only 3 million bpd away. That’s not much room.
-The production ceiling has flattened out production since 2005
-100ml of crude oil = 1kWh
-A human being working for 2 days also = 1kWh
-50 litres of gasoline = 1000 people working for a whole day
-There’s no alternative energy source anywhere near crude oil’s energy density. This is a big part of the problem we face
-By 2030, there will be a shortfall of 45 million bpd. We’ll need eight new oil fields coming on line a week, every week for the next twenty three years to fill the gap of the 45 million bpd shortfall
-Hydrogen is a non-event in the energy solution
-All alternative energy sources put together give us only a fraction of what crude oil gives
-If we take crude oil out of the global food system, we could feed about 4.5 billion. That’s a 2 billion shortfall
-As refineries around the world make most profit on diesel type fuels, the ratios of gasoline, aviation fuel and heavy fuel for shipping is decreasing
-Economists still believe that money can create more oil in the ground
It seems to me, the three most pressing factors shining out of the peak oil box are:
*This is a liquid fuel crisis and then an overall energy crisis
*Our food is frighteningly reliant on liquid fuel to be grown, processed, packaged and transported to our table
*Regardless of all the positive ‘excitement’ on alternative fuels, the fact is, even if we put all the alternatives together and times it by ten, we are still nowhere near what crude oil gives us
We’re in trouble guys. We should acknowledge that at least. Let’s not kid ourselves. At the same time, let’s not join the Nostradamus End-of-the-World gang, either and simply throw our hands up in the air. When this is all balanced out, the path before us is one of action. We must talk, we must spread the word passionately but above all else, we need to individually act in preparation and then network, link and branch out to collective action.
Upon wrapping up his informative and entertaining lecture, receiving a hearty applause, he announced that like Elvis, he was leaving the building due to another engagement.
That was our cue! Ferdi and I ran out the door where we ambushed him on his way out (Sorry Professor!) and took a couple of photos. That’s yours truly with Professor Aleklett.
All in all, we enjoyed the lecture and look forward to attending more in the future. Stay in touch with us and share your thoughts, words and deeds. Watch this space!
Michael
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