Rational Speculation & Justification of Peak

Peak Oil and its interrelated siblings such as modern agriculture, transport, overpopulation, globalisation, consumerism and all the associated consequences, rank on top of my list of challenges humanity faces within the next fifty years. Fortunately, I’m not the only one who holds such a belief. In fact, there’s an army of professional and highly qualified people spanning the globe who also share this view.

 

They include geologists, engineers, petroleum executives, energy bankers, analysts, journalists, scientists and economists. Yet, for every one of these peak oil advocates, there are a hundred, who believe there’s nothing to worry about. This multitude of respectable, intelligent and just as qualified people chant the mighty song of ‘we shall overcome.’ The stand out verses in the song are, ‘technology will save the day’, ‘human ingenuity will not fail us’ and ‘alternative fuels will replace crude oil and life will go on unchanged.’

 

Speaking for myself here, I certainly hope their song of embellished optimism and playing down the problem turns out to be correct. I have no wish whatsoever to live in a world with an exponentially mounting population, ‘developing’ a taste for copious amounts of cheap energy to fuel their improved standard of living at a time of declining energy resources. Yet those are the facts and that is the world I’m living in.

 

Let’s face it, the world is addicted to growth and without it, under the current method, the system begins to feed on itself. It implodes when appropriate amounts of new debt are not dished out. New debt means growth in some form, which requires more energy, of which crude oil is fundamental. It’s all conceptually quite simple.

 

It becomes vastly more complex when one attempts to play seer with supply and demand issues in the short term because of the myriad issues capable of affecting such fundamentals. Ask any economist to explain what happened to crude oil in 2008 and the spectrum of answers is as wide as the gap between Tori Spelling’s breasts. Who knows these things?

 

My own underlying proverb in all this is straightforward. If the world cannot replace crude oil without our standard of living plummeting and it’s supply is depleting, why the hell wouldn’t I start taking serious precautions? I mean, just in case.

 

We’re all well aware of the fact that the modern world runs on crude. Demand may be down for a while but it will turn up again inevitably. Add depletion to the mix and well, you know the story. This is serious, folks!

 

If peak oil turns out to be incorrect, then the world will continue. Whatever precautions you’ve taken will not harm you in the least. You would of lived close to a train station, had extra food and water stocked up, gained vital camping skills, used your push bike a little more and your car a lot less, reduced your debt load and kept yourself liquid with some cash savings and a little in gold bullion.

 

On your camping trips you would of taught yourself and your children the importance of knowing how to survive in nature for prolonged periods of time. Such skills are important irrespective of peak oil as every family should have basic knowledge of what to do in a crisis or disaster situation.

 

In the process of all the above, you would of continued living your life and probably learnt much about yourself and grown closer to your friends, family and nature in general.

 

Now, if peak oil turns out to be correct and the slow, long decline begins within the next decade, what will you do? Not when it happens because that will already be too late for you – I mean now?

 

Without going to childish and asinine extremes, the consequences of peak are many and profound. In all likelihood, they will change the world forever and not for the better. We won’t be in a position to prepare for everything. That’s not the focus of preparation. The focus is to build certain habits that will allow you and your family to operate and function when the lights go out permanently and the food stops growing on the supermarket shelves.

 

Nobody really knows what peak oil will bring and how it will bring it. It’s difficult to prepare for the unknown but in this case, the consequences of inaction are simply too great. Upon reasoned analysis, I’m sure most of you will agree it’s better to prepare than to do nothing.

 

For those of you who fall into this category, make a humble start and stick with it. Continue visiting the AlienWorld website and if need be, send me an email. That’s what I’m here for.

 

Michael 

Comments

[Frankie]

I have recently become aware of the issues surrounding the peak oil crisis and its potential impact on society should it become our reality. Instinctively I had felt for a long time that what I saw and read in the general news and media was not telling the full story.That if you read between the lines, a discerning news viewer or reader would see that we are being told the more palatable version of the truth. The planet is in crisis in one form or another. I agree with Michael that it is better to be fully informed and prepared, what have you got to lose? Denial in all aspects of life, both literal and psychological limits potential.